Early prediction of COVID-19 outcome using artificial intelligence techniques and only five laboratory indices.

We aimed to develop a prediction model for intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) patients using artificial neural networks (ANN). We assessed 25 laboratory parameters at first from 248 consecutive adult COVID-19 patients for database creation, training, and development of ANN models. We developed a new alpha-index to assess association of each parameter with outcome. We used 166 records for training of computational simulations (training), 41 for documentation of computational simulations (validation), and 41 for reliability check of computational simulations (testing). The first five laboratory indices ranked by importance were Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, Lactate Dehydrogenase, Fibrinogen, Albumin, and D-Dimers. The best ANN based on these indices achieved accuracy 95.97%, precision 90.63%, sensitivity 93.55%. and F1-score 92.06%, verified in the validation cohort. Our preliminary findings reveal for the first time an ANN to predict ICU hospitalization accurately and early, using only 5 easily accessible laboratory indices.

Corrigendum: ACTIVATE-2: A double-blind randomized trial of BCG vaccination against COVID-19 in individuals at risk.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2022.873067.].

ACTIVATE-2: A Double-Blind Randomized Trial of BCG Vaccination Against COVID-19 in Individuals at Risk.

In a recent study of our group with the acronym ACTIVATE, Bacillus Calmete-Guérin (BCG) vaccination reduced the occurrence of new infections compared to placebo vaccination in the elderly. Most benefit was found for respiratory infections. The ACTIVATE-2 study was launched to assess the efficacy of BCG vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this multicenter, double-blind trial, 301 volunteers aged 50 years or older were randomized (1:1) to be vaccinated with BCG or placebo. The trial end points were the incidence of COVID-19 and the presence of anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (anti-SARS-CoV-2) antibodies, which were both evaluated through 6 months after study intervention. Results revealed 68% relative reduction of the risk to develop COVID-19, using clinical criteria or/and laboratory diagnosis, in the group of BCG vaccine recipients compared with placebo-vaccinated controls, during a 6-month follow-up (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.13-0.79). In total, eight patients were in need of hospitalization for COVID-19: six in the placebo group and two in the BCG group. Three months after study intervention, positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were noted in 1.3% of volunteers in the placebo group and in 4.7% of participants in BCG-vaccinated group. These data indicate that BCG vaccination confers some protection against possible COVID-19 among patients older than 50 years with comorbidities. BCG vaccination may be a promising approach against the COVID-19 pandemic.